If you have been following along with my bitcon (and general crypto) analysis, it’s my opinion that this week was scheduled to be a sucker’s rally with the final dump to paint the bottom of this market cycle to come sometime in September. The sentiment on crypto-twitter right now is a mix between Bitfinex-tether/Bitmex-maintenance paranoia and cautious optimism that the spell has been broken and the bull run is off to the races.
So let’s get controversial and talk the “continuation head & shoulders” pattern. There’s a number of very loud opinions on this pattern and it’s existence is debatable, but counter-opinions didn’t stop me when I saw big foot at a Dead show last year so here we go.
Emerging from the multi-month fog of daily candles is 5/6ths of a pretty large head and shoulders pattern with a depth of approximately 2500 points. The left shoulder is in, the head is in, and 1/2 of the right shoulder is in with the potential for a shooting star daily candle closing today. If tomorrow’s candle confirms today as a swing high, I’ll feel quite a bit more confident in this call. Today’s candle painted a high of 6900, so that may be a tall order.
And if the H&S completes, technically speaking the price should run down to around 3250 which is below by original call of 3646. It’s anybody’s guess where the capitulation will take us but I’ll have bids set in the 3500 area for sure. The chart reflects a “loading zone” of 3250 to 3650 for the month of September and I’ll stick be sticking to my guns until bids hit or October 1st, whichever comes first.
With the market making going on right now, I’m decreasing leverage and increasing time frame to avoid getting chopped out by $200 15-minute candles like yesterday.
For those still cranking 100x, I salute you.
For everyone else, stay safu.
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